Underplayed or hidden altogether by the New York Times and Washington Post is polling data indicating that John Kerry and John Edwards have benefited not at all from the recent Democrat convention. CNN reported yesterday that an opinion poll taken at the weekend found Kerry to be, “… running slightly ahead of Bush among registered voters but slightly behind among likely voters. … In each case, the difference between the two men was less than the margin of error, making the results a statistical tie.”
When Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton and Al Gore enjoyed sizeable surges in polling data following their conventions, the surges were front page news in the established media. One can not help but wonder why surging Democrats are a story to be reported while sputtering Democrats are no story at all. The silence couldn't possibly be purposeful... could it?
Media bias aside, a post convention bounce may not be necessary to win elections, but the lack of any bounce must worry Democrats. It is logical to expect that nearly a week of unfiltered campaigning would result in at least a minimal surge at the polls. That is, if the message of the campaign has any resonance with undecided voters. Lacking clear positive indications in polling numbers, it is appropriate to question whether Kerry's message falls flat.
Posted by publius at August 2, 2004 12:38 PM